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Predicting the Pandemic Shock

Predicting the Pandemic Shock

Paperback

Business General

ISBN10: 6209480667
ISBN13: 9786209480669
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Published: Dec 29 2025
Pages: 52
Weight: 0.18
Height: 0.12 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: English
This research tackles a key weakness in global medical supply chains revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic. It creates a new Geopolitical-Financial Composite Index (GFCI) to act as an early-warning system. The study moves past old, reactive models by combining different risk indicators like political instability, financial swings, trade policy changes, and shipping performance into a single score. We built this index using principal component analysis and tested its accuracy against real data from the 2020-2023 crisis period. The results show the GFCI reliably signals coming shortages of medical supplies about three months in advance. This was confirmed by strong statistical correlations and ROC analysis. The final output is a practical Early-Warning and Mitigation Framework that turns GFCI alerts into specific actions, like finding new suppliers or building up reserves. This work provides policymakers and health organizations with a proactive, data-driven tool to build stronger supply chains and better prepare for future pandemics.

Also from

Omotosho, Olamide

Also in

Business General