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Modélisation et prévision de la volatilité du pétrole brut
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ISBN10: 6139714826
ISBN13: 9786139714827
Publisher: Editions Notre Savoir
Published: Sep 18 2025
Pages: 72
Weight: 0.24
Height: 0.17 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: French
ISBN13: 9786139714827
Publisher: Editions Notre Savoir
Published: Sep 18 2025
Pages: 72
Weight: 0.24
Height: 0.17 Width: 6.00 Depth: 9.00
Language: French
Le pétrole brut est l'un des principaux moteurs de l'économie mondiale. Les fluctuations des prix du pétrole ont des effets significatifs sur la croissance économique et le bien-être dans le monde entier. Comme les effets de la volatilité du pétrole s'étendent du niveau des entreprises à celui des gouvernements, les décideurs politiques et les investisseurs s'intéressent à la modélisation et à la prévision des prix du pétrole brut. Étant donné le manque de recherche sur la modélisation (en particulier la modélisation asymétrique) et la prévision de la volatilité du pétrole brut, l'objectif de cet article est de contribuer à cette littérature peu abondante dans le domaine de l'énergie. Le présent travail évalue les performances de divers modèles de type GARCH en les appliquant à trois indices de référence du pétrole brut. L'analyse devrait être essentielle pour les décisions financières et la gestion des risques de portefeuille, en particulier en ce qui concerne les questions d'évaluation des produits liés au pétrole et des instruments dérivés de l'énergie.
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